A 15-POINT PLAN AND A MARKET HOLDING ITS BREATH

Good afternoon,

A four-week war, a 15-point peace proposal, and oil briefly back below $100. Markets are catching their breath, with futures pointing higher on cautious optimism that the US-Iran conflict may be nearing resolution. The Fed remains on hold at 3.50–3.75%, and Treasury yields keep climbing. If you're drawing income from a portfolio, or planning to over the next 20 to 30 years, the questions worth sitting with are concrete: what does sticky inflation do to fixed-income streams, and how long can an energy shock like this one linger in the system?

Getting started.

Markets

Monday's surge and Tuesday's retreat suggest that sentiment is still being set by geopolitical headlines more than by earnings or economic data. With yields climbing and the Fed signaling no appetite for cuts, a ceasefire proposal may offer hope, but follow-through will matter more than the announcement.

Earnings

Gold:

Gold rallied roughly 3–4% on Wednesday to approximately $4,550 per ounce, rebounding from what had been its worst week in four decades. The recovery came as ceasefire optimism reduced the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

Gold had fallen in eight consecutive sessions, briefly touching a 2026 low near $4,100. The mechanics behind the sell-off are worth understanding: soaring crude pushed up inflation expectations, which in turn reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, making non-yielding assets less attractive relative to bonds. Analysts at BNP Paribas have noted parallels to the 2008, 2020, and 2022 sell-offs, each of which saw gold drop sharply during the initial shock before eventually recovering. Whether that pattern holds this time depends on how the oil situation resolves and what it means for rate policy.

Silver:

Silver surged roughly 7% to near $74 per ounce, outperforming gold by a clear margin. The move reflects silver's dual identity as both a monetary and industrial metal. When risk sentiment improves, silver tends to snap back harder. Industrial demand from electronics and renewables provides a floor that gold does not have.

The Gold / Silver ratio

The gold/silver ratio sits at approximately 61.5, compressing from around 63 earlier in March. This decline signals silver's relative outperformance during the recovery.

Ratios below 65 have historically coincided with periods where silver gains strength against gold. The current level sits below the 50-year average of roughly 67, which some analysts interpret as silver being well-valued rather than cheap. A falling ratio has often, though not always, reflected improving risk appetite. One way to read the current picture: if the ratio continues compressing, it may suggest markets are pricing in an inflationary environment where the economy is still functioning, rather than a recessionary one. Industrial demand for silver appears firm, while gold's monetary premium has cooled somewhat as rate-cut expectations faded.

Worth noting: Both metals are recovering from a sharp sell-off driven more by rate expectations and dollar mechanics than by a change in their structural supply-and-demand picture. That does not tell us where they go next. But it is useful context for anyone trying to separate short-term price action from the longer-term questions about inflation hedging and currency diversification that precious metals tend to raise.

M&A / Investments

Capital Returns

Strategic Shift

The chain of cause and effect has been visible these past four weeks. Oil shocks feed inflation. Inflation delays rate cuts. Delayed cuts push up yields. Rising yields pressure bonds and growth stocks. And through all of it, the cost of healthcare, housing, and daily life does not pause.

For anyone drawing from a portfolio, or planning to within the next decade, that chain touches several risks worth naming. Sequence-of-returns risk: a sharp drawdown early in retirement can permanently reduce income. Longevity risk: a 30-year retirement means savings need to outrun inflation for a very long time. And tax risk: shifting yields and policy can change the after-tax value of income streams in ways that are not obvious until filing season.

None of this points to a specific action. But weeks like these are a reminder to look at those particular risks rather than at the market as a single number. The more clearly we see the forces shaping what a dollar of savings will buy in 10 or 20 years, the better the questions we can bring to the people who advise us.