Good afternoon,
Stocks are closing out a fourth straight losing week, but the week had more to it than red numbers. FedEx reminded us the real economy still works. Gold stumbled midweek then bounced back while equities didn't, and the gold/silver ratio is telling a quiet story about where risk sentiment is heading. Unilever put its food empire on the table, Uber bet big on robotaxis, and the Fed made clear it's in no rush to cut. We unpack what it all means for inflation, income, and the long game below.
Getting started.
The Pulse
The S&P 500 fell roughly 1%, slipping further below its 200-day moving average. The 10-year yield climbed above 4.3%. Brent crude hovered near $108. The VIX sat near 25.
Markets
The S&P 500 dropped to around 6,558, with the decline accelerating after the Pentagon deployment report.
The Nasdaq fell roughly 1%, pressured by Super Micro Computer's 20%+ plunge after its co-founder was charged with smuggling $2.5 billion in Nvidia servers to China.
Brent crude traded near $108, up about 5% for the week, with daily swings exceeding $10 since the conflict began.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.3%, deepening a bond selloff as rate expectations shifted on the Fed's hawkish inflation outlook.
Friday also marked the year's first "triple witching." Goldman Sachs warned that equities have not priced in enough risk premium for a lasting disruption.text
Earnings
FedEx (FDX) posted fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings of $5.25, well above the $4.12 consensus, on revenue of $24 billion. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $19.30–$20.10. Shares surged roughly 9%. (CNBC)
FedEx Freight, set to spin off on June 1, saw revenue decline about 5% on softer volumes.
Micron (MU) fell nearly 4% despite record Q2 results, on worries about peaking margins and heavy capex. (Motley Fool)
FedEx matters because it's a proxy for the real economy. Raised guidance during geopolitical stress suggests the commercial engine is still turning.
Gold & Silver Moves
Gold:
Gold traded around $4,660 on Friday morning, rebounding 1–2% after a punishing week. On Thursday, gold fell as much as 7% and was on pace for its worst week since 1983. A surging dollar and rising yields drove the selloff.
The Friday rebound was modest but meaningful. As headlines confirmed new military deployments, gold regained footing. The metal is still up more than $1,600 over the past year, supported by central bank buying and demand for stores of value outside the dollar system.
The Fed's revised inflation projections, now at 2.7% core PCE for 2026, reinforce that backdrop. Gold performs well when inflation runs above target and real rates are compressed.
Silver:
Silver traded near $72, roughly flat after dropping more than 12% on Thursday. Its recovery has been far more muted than gold's. Silver sits at the intersection of monetary metal and industrial commodity. When recession fears rise, silver underperforms gold. That is exactly what played out this week.
The ratio sits near 65, having widened sharply this week. By Thursday, the divergence was stark: gold dropped 7%, silver dropped nearly 13%.
Over recent decades, the ratio has frequently ranged between 50 and 80, with a modern average closer to 60. A reading of 65 places silver on the slightly expensive side relative to gold. But the direction matters more than the level. An expanding ratio typically signals markets favoring gold's safe-haven role over silver's industrial utility.
This pattern emerges when investors worry about both inflation and recession simultaneously. They rotate toward gold and away from silver. Oil is elevated, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, and job creation has slowed to near zero by Powell's own assessment. The current widening fits that framework. If the ratio climbs toward 75 or higher, it would confirm recession risk as the dominant concern.
The takeaway: In a week where both metals were tested, gold proved the more resilient store of purchasing power, a distinction that matters for retirement-oriented portfolios.
The Deal Room
M&A / Investments
Unilever confirmed an offer from McCormick for its food division, valued at up to $33 billion, structured as a Reverse Morris Trust. (BBG)
Nexstar closed its $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna, creating the largest U.S. local TV station group. (CNBC)
Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to deploy up to 50,000 R2 robotaxis across 25 cities by 2031. (CNBC)
Regulatory / Distress
Eight state AGs filed antitrust suits to block the Nexstar-Tegna merger. (CNN)
Retirement Lens
This was a week that tested every corner of a diversified portfolio. Equities fell. Bonds sold off. Gold dropped before recovering. Silver fared worse.
The pattern is one of competing pressures: inflation that won't fade, growth that's slowing, and a central bank with limited room to act. Gold's rebound on Friday, while equities continued to slide, illustrates why uncorrelated assets matter. Patience and structure remain the best tools available.
Headline Hunt
UK 10-year gilt yield hit 5% for the first time since 2008.
The DOJ probe of Powell may extend his tenure, as Sen. Tillis blocks Warsh's confirmation.
The IEA called the Iran conflict the largest oil supply disruption in market history.
Netanyahu said Iran can no longer enrich uranium, adding the war may end sooner than expected.
Seven of 19 Fed officials now expect no rate cuts in 2026, with the neutral rate estimate rising to 3.0%.
China restricted overseas-incorporated firms from pursuing Hong Kong IPOs.
U.S. long-term mortgage rates rose to 6.22%, the highest in over three months.
Super Micro said it is not named as a defendant and placed implicated employees on leave.
South Korea's KOSPI fell 12% overnight amid contagion fears from the energy shock.