Good afternoon,

Markets took a step back on Tuesday. Ongoing tensions in Iran are shaking up energy prices and reviving inflation concerns. Traders are actively unwinding their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the shift in sentiment is being felt across global exchanges.

Meanwhile, Blackstone is managing a surge of redemptions in its massive private credit fund, and the CEO of McDonald's is facing fresh scrutiny. Over in Asia, the Korean market just took a historic drop.

Getting started.

The Pulse

A table showing the market indices as of 3/3/2026 market close.

Markets

  • US equities took a hit yesterday. The ongoing conflict in Iran is stirring up fresh inflation worries.

  • Traders are actively reducing their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

  • The Stoxx 600 in Europe plummeted 3%. That marks its sharpest two-day decline since last April.

  • The UK's FTSE 100 also suffered its steepest daily loss since April.

  • Trading in UAE markets has officially resumed today.

Earnings

  • This week's lineup:

    • Today: Broadcom, Cracker Barrel

    • Thursday: Costco, JD.com, Victoria's Secret

  • See the full calendar here.

Prediction Markets

  • Escalation has been the default setting lately. (Polymarket)

Headline Hunt

  • Iran is putting the late Khamenei's strategy into motion to expand the regional conflict. (FT)

  • American financial institutions are bracing for potential cyberattacks as the conflict in Iran heats up. (RT)

  • The bond market has cracked open again with top-tier borrowers moving forward on new deals. (BBG)

  • Kevin Warsh wants to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Any action on that front would likely take place at a measured pace. (FT)

  • Wall Street is starting to sweat over the aggressive loans being handed out by major private lenders. (NYT)

  • Swiss politicians are urging UBS to cool it with their lobbying efforts amid a heated debate over capital reforms. (FT)

  • Congress is demanding that a former Goldman Sachs executive testify regarding her connections to Epstein. (CNBC)

  • A former wealth manager at Nomura just caught an 18-year prison sentence following a violent home invasion and the attempted murder of a client. (BBG)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • The Toyota group has bumped up its take-private offer for Toyota Industries for a second time to hit $40B. Activist investor Elliott is looking at a $500M payday on the trade.

  • The activist fund Elliott has deployed a $1B strategic investment into the social media company Pinterest, which currently sits at a $12.5B valuation.

  • The Swiss insurance giant Zurich Insurance has struck a deal to absorb the UK-based specialty insurer Beazley at an impressive $11B valuation.

  • The UK-based private equity outfit Rosebank Industries has agreed to snap up American industrial suppliers MW Components and CPM in a transaction worth $3.1B.

  • The European asset manager Allianz Global Investors has reached an agreement to secure a 50% stake in the German battery project pipeline owned by energy heavyweight TotalEnergies.

Venture Flow

  • The co-packaged optics builder Ayar Labs just closed a $500M Series E. The fresh capital was led by Neuberger Berman and pegs the company at a $3.75B valuation.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • The massive $70B-listed mining conglomerate Vale is looking to carve out and publicly list its copper and nickel operations sometime in Q2.

  • The South Korean semiconductor startup Rebellions has tapped JPMorgan to serve as the global lead underwriter for its upcoming domestic public offering.

The Debt Desk

  • Major lenders JPMorgan and Wells Fargo stepped up to provide a $1B debt facility. The capital is funding a $3.9B management buyout of the healthcare operator Select Medical.

Crypto Corner

  • Trump has publicly called on Congress to fast-track comprehensive crypto market legislation without delay.

  • Turkish regulators just unveiled a proposal to hit digital asset gains with a 10% income tax.

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is publicly firing back against the push for high-yielding stablecoins.

  • Crypto.com is launching a new IRA offering that blends traditional equities with digital assets.

  • Aptos token holders successfully voted to place a hard cap on their total supply at 2.1 billion.

  • ASM International just posted some impressive numbers, and the stock is reacting accordingly. Worth a look to see what's driving their strong forward guidance. (WSJ)

Today’s Meme Pick

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