MARKETS BOUNCE, CREDIT CRACKS

US equities found their footing yesterday as investors digested new economic data, steadying oil prices, and the prospect of diplomatic progress in Iran.

Dubai's DFM General index took a 4.7% hit in its worst outing since May 2022 following the reopening of UAE markets.

The dollar slipped 0.3%, marking its toughest day in three weeks.

This week's lineup:

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Air war is already here — ground troops would be a very different escalation (Polymarket).

The Senate shut down a war powers resolution that would have forced a pullback from Iran (CNBC).

Washington is actively weighing what role the US might play in Iran once the current conflict wraps up (WSJ).

Global equity capital markets are seeing a boom in activity despite ongoing geopolitical tension (RT).

Short sellers are aggressively targeting Blue Owl as anxiety around the private credit sector mounts (BBG).

Investors are rushing for cash, pushing money market assets to a record $8.27 trillion (BBG).

The cost to ship oil from the US to Asia just hit an all-time high (BBG).

Indonesia has faced a string of tough blows to market sentiment so far this year (RT).

Morgan Stanley is trimming its workforce, cutting 3% of staff across its three main divisions (WSJ).

Anthropic has officially hit a massive $20 billion in annual recurring revenue (BBG).

A coalition of major tech firms is backing Anthropic in its ongoing dispute with the Pentagon (RT).

Blackstone hit a roadblock in its plans to inject $2.5 billion into Hong Kong developer New World Development, as the Cheng family is hesitant to give up control.

American private equity shop Arcline has joined the bidding war for Senior, a UK-based aviation parts manufacturer currently valued at $1.7 billion.

Nvidia chief Jensen Huang suggested the chipmaker might stop investing in OpenAI and Anthropic as the AI giants gear up for public offerings.

Blackstone is funding its $2.5 billion purchase of Champions Group from Odyssey Investment Partners with a private credit loan exceeding $1 billion, priced at a 450 basis point premium.

The USPS has brought on restructuring advisors as the postal service faces the reality of running out of cash by 2027.

Venture heavyweight a16z crypto is targeting $2 billion for its fifth dedicated crypto fund.

Regulators on Wall Street are pushing forward with new frameworks for crypto and prediction markets.

Iran’s massive $7.8 billion crypto market is attracting renewed scrutiny amid the ongoing conflict.

Morgan Stanley is tapping Coinbase and BNY to handle the heavy lifting for its Bitcoin ETF.

Vitalik Buterin is pushing for Ethereum to expand its horizons beyond purely financial applications.

Sleep tech firm Eight Sleep just pulled in a $50 million strategic round at a $1.5 billion valuation, led by Tether Investments.