Good afternoon,
We are waking up to a market that is suddenly paying very close attention to geopolitical friction. Oil prices are testing new highs as the situation with Iran escalates, forcing Washington to scramble for ways to keep energy costs from suffocating the consumer.
Meanwhile, the corporate world is staying busy. Berkshire is buying back its own stock again, Oracle is quietly trimming headcount to fund its artificial intelligence ambitions, and Wells Fargo just shed its regulatory shackles after fifteen long years. The underlying theme here is efficiency. Companies are battening down the hatches and making sure their balance sheets are bulletproof.
Getting started.
The Pulse
As of 3/5/2026 market close.
Markets
US equities are continuing to bleed as expensive oil and the Iran conflict spark broader economic anxieties. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the year.
Treasury yields climbed for the fourth consecutive day.
Oil has officially hit its highest level since July 2024.
Emerging market currencies are taking a hit for the fourth straight day. Volatility in this sector just eclipsed developed markets for the first time since May, ending a historically calm stretch.
Prediction Markets
Long season — pace and reliability decide. (Polymarket)
Headline Hunt
Trump brushed off concerns about rising gas prices tied to operations in Iran, stating that if prices go up, they go up. (RT)
White House officials are considering intervening in the oil futures market to suppress spiking energy costs. (RT)
The highly popular dispersion trade is getting shaken up by the escalating tensions in Iran. (BBG)
Goldman Sachs noted that default rates across the private credit sector are staying remarkably low. (BBG)
The US government is thinking about requiring strict permits for all artificial intelligence chip exports globally. (BBG)
Nvidia has halted the manufacturing of semiconductors specifically designed for the Chinese market. (FT)
The Pentagon officially labeled Anthropic as a potential supply chain risk. (BBG)
OpenAI just rolled out a brand new suite of financial services tools to compete directly with Anthropic. (BBG)
The Deal Room
M&A / Investments
NYSE parent company Intercontinental Exchange is taking a strategic stake in the cryptocurrency exchange OKX. The deal values the crypto operator at $25 billion.
Saba Capital and Cox Capital are attempting to scoop up 5 percent of the $8 billion Starwood REIT. They launched a tender offer looking to buy the shares at a steep 20 percent discount to their net asset value.
Shanghai Moody Technology is exploring a potential sale. The Chinese contact lens manufacturer is currently floating a $1 billion valuation.
Venture Flow
NEURA Robotics is putting together a massive $1.2 billion funding round. The German cognitive robotics firm is securing capital from players like Tether at a $6 billion valuation.
IPO / Direct Listings
Roark Capital is evaluating a $2 billion public offering for Inspire Brands. The conglomerate owns massive fast-food staples like BWW, Jimmy John's, Dunkin', Baskin-Robbins, Sonic, and Arby's.
The Debt Desk
China is preparing to issue $44 billion in special government bonds. The move is designed to inject fresh capital into the nation's largest state-owned banks.
Fresh Capital
Sound Point Capital successfully closed its third flagship credit fund with $1.5 billion in fresh capital.
Investcorp brought in $1.25 billion for its second general partner staking vehicle out of Bahrain.
Crypto
Cryptocurrency equities are surging as the Trump administration and federal regulators hint at a much friendlier policy landscape.
Bitcoin is treading water around the $71,000 mark. The broader market rally lost steam as the escalating conflict in Iran and recent oil tanker attacks spooked investors.
American Bitcoin, a firm with ties to Trump, just expanded its corporate treasury to a massive 6,500 Bitcoin.
The FBI arrested a suspect tied to the $46 million cryptocurrency theft from the US Marshals Service.
The Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, bought a strategic stake in the crypto platform OKX at a $25 billion valuation.
Recommended Reading
Bloomberg has an interesting take on the tech sector's reaction to DeepSeek. They argue that Silicon Valley's frantic rush to preemptively neutralize the competitor might end up being entirely self-defeating.
Today’s Meme Pick
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