Good afternoon,

We are watching a classic market reaction today as traders jump on the chaos surrounding tariff refunds. The defense sector also hit a wall with Anthropic turning down the Pentagon's final offer. Block is slashing its headcount in a major way, and South Korea's massive stock market run just caught another tailwind.

The biggest story in media is the impending merger of giants. Paramount is stepping up to buy Warner Bros. now that Netflix has officially bowed out of the high stakes bidding war.

Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 02/26/2026 market close.

Markets

  • Domestic equities pulled back yesterday when stellar numbers from Nvidia somehow failed to move the needle.

  • The yield on the US 10 year Treasury note dropped to a fresh low for the year.

Prediction Markets

  • Momentum points to a June announcement (Polymarket).

Headline Hunt

  • Traders on Wall Street are eagerly taking advantage of the confusion surrounding the new tariff refunds. (WSJ)

  • Analysts are warning that the flattening of the Japanese yield curve has pushed past reasonable limits. (BBG)

  • Government bond issuance in the United Kingdom is projected to decline for the first time in four years. (FT)

  • The biggest asset managers on the planet are turning highly optimistic regarding emerging market investments. (BBG)

  • Equity strategists note that investors are buying protection against a potential drop in the broader index. (BBG)

  • Sophisticated traders are utilizing highly technical strategies to avoid fallout from artificial intelligence blowups. (FT)

  • Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic firmly declined what the Pentagon called its absolute best and final contract offer. (FT)

  • OpenAI just hired a top artificial intelligence researcher from Meta who previously ran the models division at Apple. (TI)

The Deal Room

M&A / Investments

  • Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed that the massive $112 billion proposal from Paramount Skydance beat out the competition and will effectively force Netflix to abandon its pursuit.

  • The security giant Brink's agreed to a $4 billion cash and equity transaction to acquire the ATM manufacturer NCR Atleos.

  • A consortium including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC, UBS, and Wells Fargo bought a collective $100 million minority position in OSTTRA from KKR.

Venture Flow

  • The massive $50 billion commitment from Amazon into OpenAI might only materialize if the company achieves generalized intelligence or successfully executes an initial public offering.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Syngenta, the massive agricultural firm owned by China's Sinochem, revived its efforts to raise $10 billion through a public listing in Hong Kong.

The Debt Desk

  • Affinity Partners, Silver Lake, and the PIF could not convince bondholders to take a haircut on $1.5 billion in debt to restructure the massive $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts.

  • Blackstone Secured Lending priced a $400 million bond at a steep premium just a day after revealing significant stress in its core portfolio.

Distress Signals / Bankruptcy Watch

  • MFS collapsed into administration under a cloud of fraud allegations leaving Barclays, Apollo's Atlas, Jefferies, Santander, Wells Fargo, and Castlelake staring at $2.7 billion in exposed loans.

Crypto

  • The market for tokenized US Treasuries just surged past the $1 billion mark as investors look for on-chain yield.

  • Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has offloaded 17,000 ETH this month, raising eyebrows across the market.

  • Prediction market Kalshi officially suspended an employee of YouTube star MrBeast following allegations of insider trading.

  • The brutal $1.6 trillion collapse in the software sector is mapped out perfectly in charts.

Today’s Meme Pick

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