Good afternoon,
Geopolitical tensions escalated yesterday as strikes against Iran persisted. In a strangely timed event, Claude also experienced an outage, with monitors suggesting the two incidents might be connected.
Getting started.

The Pulse

As of 3/2/2026 market close.
Markets
European markets took a hit with the Stoxx 600 sliding 1.7% to a two-week low.
Emerging market foreign exchange dropped 0.5% to mark its worst session since November of 2024.
United States equities ended the session mixed as traders processed the ongoing situation in the Middle East.
Oil prices spiked amid the geopolitical uncertainty.
Earnings
This week's lineup:
Today: Target, Best Buy
Wednesday: Broadcom, Cracker Barrel
Thursday: Costco, JD.com, Victoria's Secret
See the full calendar here.
Prediction Markets

Headlines hot, ceasefire cold (Polymarket).
Headline Hunt
The former president has promised to do whatever is necessary regarding Iran as the conflict continues to expand.
Many hedge funds are actively reconsidering their emerging market positions following the recent U.S. strikes.
Banks and funds operating in the United Arab Emirates are moving into emergency contingency planning.
Capital is flowing into gold rather than traditional bonds as investors seek shelter from the Middle East unrest.
Wagers on geopolitical outcomes have reached all-time highs on prediction platforms.
The Deal Room
M&A / Investments
Paramount Skydance plans to merge the Paramount+ and HBO Max platforms following its massive $110B takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Nvidia has committed to invest $2B into the photonics company Lumentum, which currently holds a $56B market cap.
Venture Flow
The Nvidia-backed firm Reflection AI is currently negotiating fresh capital at a staggering $20B valuation.
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
The Japanese fintech player PayPay, backed by SoftBank, is pushing back the marketing efforts for its anticipated $1.1B public offering in the U.S.
The German defense supplier Vincorion is preparing to market a $350M public listing in Germany, targeting a valuation north of $1.2B.
The Debt Desk
JPMorgan is preparing to offload $20B in syndicated debt to fund the massive $55B leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts orchestrated by Silver Lake, PIF, and Affinity Partner.
ADNOC, the state-owned energy giant in Abu Dhabi, has temporarily halted its inaugural dim sum bond issuance.
Fresh Capital
The growth equity shop Bregal Sagemount successfully closed out its fifth investment vehicle with $3.5B in commitments.
The European credit specialist Arcmont is actively discussing a $2.2B continuation vehicle for a 2019 private credit fund, with Ares and Pantheon stepping up as leads.
Crypto Corner
The team behind the stablecoin Tether just froze $4.2 billion worth of digital assets due to alleged connections to criminal activity.
A federal judge declared that the crypto exchange Binance cannot force customer loss claims into private arbitration.
The promise of a nonstop, 24-hour crypto trading environment is facing serious headwinds from real-world geopolitical shocks.
Recommended Reading
The Financial Times dropped a fascinating look at the Silicon Valley billionaires spending big to write America's AI rules.
Today’s Meme Pick
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