Good afternoon,
The AI trade is shifting targets. For a while, it was all about who makes the chips and who builds the data centers. Now, the market is sniffing out the victims. Wealth manager stocks took a hit yesterday on fears that generative AI might finally be coming for the job of your financial advisor. It’s a classic rotation: dump the disrupted, buy the disruptors.
Meanwhile, the media landscape is getting messier. Activist investors are circling the Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery-Paramount drama, pushing for better terms and breakup fees. It’s the kind of chaotic dealmaking that usually signals a bottom or a total capitulation.
In other news, Texas just lost a round in its war against ESG, and prediction markets are getting even more granular—you can now trade on "attention" itself. If you thought the market for stocks was efficient, wait until you see the market for eyeballs.
Getting started.
The Pulse
As of 2/10/2026 market close.
Markets
US Stock ticked lower as financials felt the heat from AI anxiety.
The Dow still managed a third-straight record close.
Earnings
Ford had a rough quarter. A $900M tariff hit caused a massive earnings miss, though they’re optimistic about traditional auto growth offsetting EV losses (CNBC).
Spotify crushed it. Revenue and earnings beat estimates, fueled by 11% user growth and a massive "Wrapped" campaign. The platform is becoming a margin machine (CNBC).
This week's lineup:
Today: McDonald's, Shopify,Kraft Heinz
Thursday: Coinbase, Brookfield, Rivian
Friday: Moderna, Wendy's
See the full calendar here.
Prediction Markets
Benchmarks evolve weekly. (Polymarket)
Headline Hunt
The software selloff could destabilize the $1.5T loan market (RT).
US stock turnover hit $1T a day as trading volumes explode (BBG).
China remains stuck in deflation for a third consecutive year (CNBC).
Wealth manager stocks are sinking as AI disruption fears mount (BBG).
Super Bowl betting drove a record $1.2B in volume on prediction markets (BBG).
Goldman Sachs sees a comeback for financial sponsors and dealmaking (RT).
Nvidia has been told to accept strict limits on China chip sales (RT).
A judge ruled Texas' anti-ESG law unconstitutional (RT).
Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman wants to build a top-10 global foundation (WSJ).
Tesla tapped Joe Ward to lead global sales (BBG).
The Deal Room
M&A / Investments
Paramount Skydance upped its hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery to $108B. The sweeteners include a $2.8B breakup fee and a debt backstop.
Cintas is back at the table to buy UniFirst for $4.3B in cash.
Brookfield is also negotiating to buy Fidere from Blackstone for $1.2B.
NJJ and Millicom agreed to buy Telefonica's Chile unit for $1.2B.
Venture Flow
Blackstone increased its stake in Anthropic to $1B (valuation at $350B).
Runway, the AI video generator, raised a $315M Series E at a $5.3B valuation led by General Atlantic.
Vega raised a $120M Series B for AI cybersecurity at a $700M valuation led by Accel.
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Agibank raised $240M in a downsized US IPO, valuing the firm at $1.9B.
Ancora built a $200M stake in Warner Bros. Discovery to block the Netflix deal.
Gourmet Egypt surged 40% in its debut after raising $1.8B.
The Debt Desk
Volkswagen is eyeing a $7.7B debt package to back the sale of its diesel unit.
Walt Disney returned to the bond market with a $4B sale.
Ares is lending $2.4B to Vantage Data Centers for AI infrastructure.
JPMorgan is buying back $1.5B of Electronic Arts bonds.
Distress Signals
Venezuela bondholders hired Houlihan Lokey for a potential $60B restructuring following Maduro's arrest.
FAT Brands creditors (holding $1B in bonds) backed off their push to oust the CEO.
Crypto
Goldman Sachs has disclosed a position worth $1.1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs.
The CEO of SafeMoon was sentenced to eight years in prison for orchestrating a crypto fraud scheme.
Prediction markets have grown fourfold to reach a valuation of $63.5 billion.
Vitalik Buterin has detailed how Ethereum can work alongside Artificial Intelligence.
The European Union is currently considering a ban on cryptocurrency transactions involving Russia.
Recommended Reading
Larry Swedroe breaks down exactly why corporate narratives drive stock valuations in his recent analysis. Read here.
Today’s Meme Pick
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