WHY THE WEEKEND OIL SURGE JUST COLLAPSED

American equities erased earlier losses and closed in the green yesterday after Trump declared the strikes in Iran to be comprehensive and well ahead of schedule.

The Nikkei 225 out of Japan fell 5%. This brings the index down 10% from the all-time high it reached in February.

The euro sank to a four-month low against the US dollar.

Currency traders have not been this pessimistic about the euro since the Russian invasion of Ukraine back in 2022.

Markets are now actively pricing in 2026 rate hikes for the ECB, BoE, and SNB.

Oil prices retreated below $90 a barrel. This follows a massive surge to $118 during weekend trading sessions.

This week's lineup:

See the full calendar here.

Late-season buzz can flip the race fast (Polymarket).

The US president hinted that the conflict with Iran might be wrapping up following a conversation with Putin (CNBC).

Market participants are preparing themselves for a potential return to 1970s-era stagflation (RT).

The federal government is actively reviewing different strategies to cool down rapidly rising gasoline costs (BBG).

Defensive market positions meant to protect against extreme events are surging as Middle East tensions rattle investors (BBG).

The ongoing situation in Iran is completely rewriting the strategic playbook for bond traders this year (BBG).

Goldman Sachs is actively presenting hedge funds with new ways to bet against corporate debt (FT).

Recently public companies with depressed share prices are entering a vicious cycle as their insider lock-up periods expire (BBG).

Citadel Securities believes investors are fundamentally miscalculating the future interest rate trajectories for both the Fed and the ECB (BBG).

Spiking credit risks are forcing many corporate borrowers to continually postpone their planned bond issuances (BBG).

The ambitions BlackRock has for retail private credit are hitting a wall of broader market anxiety (BBG).

Prediction platform Polymarket is now directly competing with traditional stock options by offering S&P 500 wagers (BBG).

Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic has filed a lawsuit to prevent the Pentagon from blacklisting them due to AI usage restrictions (RT).

American plans for Gaza are currently paused because the Iranian conflict has stalled broader disarmament negotiations (RT).

The sports investment division of Apollo, known as Apollo Sports Capital, is finalizing a 55% purchase of the Spanish soccer team Atletico ⁠Madrid. The transaction values the club at $2.9B.

The Portuguese professional soccer organization Liga Portugal is considering selling a minority interest in its media distribution rights.

The British artificial intelligence infrastructure company Nscale locked down a massive $2B Series C round. The fresh capital brings their valuation to $14.6B and was co-led by Aker and 8090 Industries.

The heavyweights of the prediction market, Polymarket and Kalshi, are both currently taking meetings to raise fresh capital. They are hunting for valuations in the neighborhood of $20 billion.

The $14B Chinese medical network Aier Eye Hospital Group is exploring a potential public listing in Hong Kong.

The activist investor group Starboard Value has taken a substantial position in the food manufacturing company Lamb Weston, which holds a $6.4B market capitalization.

The investment team at SoftBank is currently hunting for a colossal $40 billion bridge loan. They plan to use the cash to fund their massive stake in OpenAI.

A consortium of banks headed by Bank of America introduced a $2.75B leveraged loan to the market. This debt package will help finance the $6.2B purchase of Tegna by Nexstar Media Group.

The lithium and energy developer Controlled Thermal Resources agreed to a merger with Plum Acquisition Corp IV. The combination carries a $4.7B enterprise value.

The regional bank Western Alliance filed a lawsuit against Jefferies. The dispute centers around a failed $126M credit facility connected to the now-bankrupt automotive parts supplier First Brands.

The crypto exchange OKX rolled out a new social platform that directly links user posts to their actual trades.

Payment giants Circle and Stripe are making significant investments into payment infrastructure for AI agents.

The Wall Street Journal published a sharp opinion piece on How the Iran War Ends. The most likely endgame here is that American forces clear out the Gulf while the current regime manages to survive.